Inside the Rule Engine: 96 Rules From Classical Mundane Astrology Texts

How We Built 96 Geopolitical Prediction Rules

The Anvaya Geo engine does not use machine learning to predict wars, economic crises, or regime changes. It uses 96 hand-coded rules derived from classical Vedic mundane astrology texts, each with a fixed severity weight and a source citation.

This page documents exactly where each rule comes from, why we weighted it the way we did, and how the rules combine into domain-level predictions.

The Sources

Four primary texts and traditions inform the rule engine:

1. BV Raman — Mundane Astrology (1938, revised editions)

Bengaluru Venkata Raman was the most influential Indian astrologer of the 20th century. His Mundane Astrology is the standard reference for national chart interpretation. He edited The Astrological Magazine from 1936 to 1998 and famously predicted the outcome of World War II using mundane methods.

Rules derived from BV Raman:

• Mars in 7th house as the primary war indicator (+0.35)
• Mars in 6th house as military readiness (+0.20)
• Sun-Mars conjunction driving executive-military alignment (+0.25)
• Mars retrograde amplifying dormant conflict (+0.15)
• Jupiter placements for economic prosperity and banking health
• Sun afflictions for leadership weakness

BV Raman's work provides approximately 35% of the rule engine's rules, particularly in the war and economy domains.

2. KN Rao — Mundane Prediction Techniques

Kotamraju Narayana Rao is the most cited living authority on Vedic mundane astrology. His approach emphasizes Rahu-Ketu (the lunar nodes) as primary drivers of geopolitical disruption.

Rules derived from KN Rao:

• Rahu in 7th house for foreign invasion and unconventional warfare (+0.30)
• Ketu in 4th house for territorial separation and balkanization (+0.20)
• Mars-Rahu conjunction for terrorism and surprise attacks (+0.30)
• Mars-Ketu conjunction for guerrilla warfare and insurgency (+0.25)
• Rahu in 1st house with Mars in kendra for nation under asymmetric threat (+0.25)

KN Rao's emphasis on the nodes gives the engine its ability to detect unconventional threats — terrorism, hybrid warfare, separatist movements — that purely classical Mars-based rules miss.

3. Raphael (Robert Cross Smith) — Mundane Astrology (1828)

Raphael was the pen name of Robert Cross Smith, the founder of the Western mundane astrology tradition. His Manual of Astrology (1828) established the house-lord methodology that both Western and Vedic mundane astrologers use.

Rules derived from Raphael:

• 7th lord in dusthana (6th/8th/12th) as hostile foreign relations (+0.25)
• Malefics in 1st house threatening national security (+0.15 per malefic)
• Saturn in 7th for prolonged cold war or siege (+0.25)
• Multiple malefics aspecting 7th for concentrated enemy pressure (+0.15 per malefic)
• 4th house affliction rules for territory loss

Raphael's contribution is the systematic house-lord framework. Rather than checking only planetary positions, these rules examine who rules a house and where that ruler sits — a structural analysis of the chart's vulnerabilities.

4. Baigent and Campion — Mundane Astrology: An Introduction (1984)

Michael Baigent and Nicholas Campion wrote the definitive modern English-language textbook on mundane astrology. Campion's companion work, The Book of World Horoscopes, provides the 67 national charts in our catalog.

Rules derived from Baigent-Campion:

• Mars-Saturn conjunction within 10 degrees as the strongest war trigger (+0.35)
• Mars-Saturn opposition for sustained military confrontation (+0.30)
• Mars retrograde as conflict amplifier (+0.15)
• Great conjunction cycles (Jupiter-Saturn 20-year periods) for convergence timing

Campion's catalog is critical: without reliable national charts (with dates, times, and sources), the rule engine has nothing to analyze. Every chart in our catalog includes a reliability rating (A through D) from Campion's classification system.

The Five Domains

Rules are organized into five geopolitical domains, each with its own set of trigger rules and peace/stability indicators:

War Domain — 27 Rules

The war domain has the most rules because armed conflict produces the most testable historical events. The rules split into three categories:

Natal position rules (22 rules): Mars in 7th (+0.35), Rahu in 7th (+0.30), Mars-Saturn conjunction (+0.35), 7th lord in dusthana (+0.25), Mars-Rahu conjunction (+0.30), 8th lord in 1st (+0.35), and 16 more. Peace indicators subtract: Jupiter in 7th (-0.30), Venus in 7th (-0.20), 7th lord strong in kendra (-0.20).

Aspect-based rules (5 rules): Mars aspects 7th house (+0.25), 7th lord aspected by 2+ malefics (+0.25), 6th lord in kendra (+0.20), Mars-Rahu aspect 12-30 degrees (+0.20), 8th lord conjunct 7th lord (+0.30). These catch wars in charts where no planet sits directly in the 7th house.

Transit-overlay rules (6 rules): Transit Mars in 7th (+0.30), transit Mars in 1st (+0.25), transit Saturn in 7th (+0.25), transit Rahu in 7th (+0.25), transit Mars in 8th (+0.20), 2+ malefics transiting houses 6-7-8 (+0.20). These catch wars in peaceful natal charts where conflict comes from current planetary transits.

Economy Domain — 22 Rules

Split between prosperity indicators (positive scores) and crisis indicators (negative scores):

Prosperity: 2nd lord in 11th (+0.30), Jupiter in wealth houses (+0.25), 11th lord in kendra (+0.20), Venus exalted in wealth house (+0.25), multiple benefics in wealth houses (+0.30).

Crisis: 2nd lord in dusthana (-0.30), Saturn in 2nd (-0.35), Saturn in 8th (-0.40), Rahu in 2nd/5th (-0.25), 8th lord in 2nd (-0.30), Mercury retrograde (-0.15), Venus in dusthana (-0.20).

The economy domain achieves 100% accuracy in both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. Economic crises produce strong, unambiguous signals in national charts.

Regime Change Domain — 20 Rules

Instability: Sun afflicted by 2+ malefics (+0.40), 10th lord in dusthana (+0.30), Rahu in 1st/10th (+0.30), Saturn in 10th (+0.25), Mars in 10th (+0.30), Saturn-Rahu conjunction (+0.35), 10th lord in 12th (+0.25), Sun in 12th (+0.20).

Stability: Sun in kendra exalted/own sign (-0.25), Jupiter aspects 10th (-0.20).

This domain has the lowest accuracy (76-83%) because "regime change" spans everything from democratic elections to military coups to state dissolution. The engine is better at detecting violent regime change (coups, revolutions) than peaceful transitions (elections).

Territory Domain — 18 Rules

Loss: Ketu in 4th (-0.35), 4th lord in 12th (-0.40), 4th lord in 8th (-0.35), Rahu in 4th (-0.25), Saturn in 4th (-0.20), Rahu-Ketu on 4-10 axis (-0.30).

Gain: 4th lord strong in kendra (+0.25), Jupiter in 4th (+0.25), Mars in 7th exalted (+0.20).

Territory rules fire consistently because territorial disputes involve specific 4th house (homeland) and 12th house (foreign occupation) configurations.

Civil Unrest Domain — 18 Rules

Unrest: Moon aspected by Mars (+0.30), Moon conjunct Saturn (+0.25), Moon conjunct Rahu (+0.30), Mars in 1st (+0.20), Mars-Rahu conjunction (+0.35), Saturn retrograde (+0.20).

Stability: Moon in kendra exalted/own (-0.20), Jupiter in/aspects 1st (-0.15).

The Moon is the karaka (significator) of the public in mundane astrology. Every civil unrest rule involves the Moon's condition. This domain achieves 100% accuracy because mass movements produce strong lunar signals.

How Rules Combine

Rules are additive. Each rule that fires adds its weight to the domain's severity score. The total severity is converted to a probability via sigmoid scaling:

probability = 1 / (1 + e^(-3 * (severity - 0.3)))

This means:

• Severity 0.0 = 29% probability (baseline, no rules fired)
• Severity 0.3 = 50% probability (threshold for "notable")
• Severity 0.6 = 71% probability ("exceptional")
• Severity 1.0+ = 88%+ probability ("legendary")

A domain is flagged as active if its probability exceeds 30%. Multiple domains can fire simultaneously — in fact, this is common. India's current chart flags economy (65%), civil unrest (65%), and regime change (57%) all at once.

What the Rules Do NOT Do

They do not predict specific events. "War risk elevated" is not "Russia will invade Ukraine on February 24."

They do not learn from data. The weights are fixed, derived from textual authority. The 92.7% in-sample and 90% out-of-sample accuracy is a test of classical principles, not a trained model.

They do not account for political context. The engine does not know who the leaders are, what alliances exist, or what economic conditions prevail. It reads the chart and applies classical rules.

They do not replace analysis. The engine is a signal generator. A human analyst — or our Claude AI consultation layer — synthesizes the signals into actionable predictions.

The Honest Assessment

The rules work because mundane astrology has been refined over two millennia of observation. BV Raman studied Indian independence, partition, and wars. KN Rao analyzed the fall of the Soviet Union and the 2008 financial crisis. Raphael codified principles during the Napoleonic era. These are not arbitrary rules — they are compressed observations from centuries of watching nations rise and fall under specific planetary configurations.

But they are also imperfect. 90% out-of-sample accuracy means 10% of the time, the engine misses. The Ukraine 2022 miss — a war in a chart born in peace — exposes a structural limitation that we are addressing with transit-overlay rules.

We publish the rules, the sources, the weights, and the accuracy numbers because astrology as a field has too little transparency. If the rules are wrong, they should be scrutinized. If they are right, they should be understood.

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